Why I bet against OEM production rates

 Years ago, I learned that all the money to support a supply chain comes through the customer.  Ultimately for aerospace, that is...

Persistent (and increasingly significant) under-supply of jet transport aircraft by Boeing and Airbus is creating...

There were a lot of headlines about the FAA limiting Boeing’s 737MAX aircraft production rate a few weeks ago.  That was not what caught my eye though.  What...

The Alaska Airlines door plug panel failure is at least partially the fault of the market environment created by Boeing and Airbus. We do not have a complete...

Two years ago Charles Edwards identified substantial quality oversight of the supply chain as a likely fallout from the MAX problems.  The problem has only been compounded by the passage of time and the disclosure of additional quality problems on Boeing programs...

A few consistent themes emerged from reviewing the earnings calls of publicly traded aerospace companies.  First, publicly at least, the firms are not seeing cost pressures from rising labor and material costs yet.  Yet the pressures are there.  Some possible explanations... 

Given inventory levels and de-stocking rates, when will the production trough occur?  It will be far from uniform across companies.  Most commercial programs have significant final goods inventory; the 787, 350, 320 and, most significantly, the MAX.  So, program...

The lead story this quarter is the pivot from tactical actions in response to the impact of the pandemic (on top of the MAX return to service delays) to the start of companies either taking strategic actions or positioning themselves to do so.  To be sure, there are many...

The second-quarter earnings reports in the supply chain confirmed the impact on the supply chain was even more significant than the OEM’s. This is due to factors like destocking at the OEM and higher tier...

That the impact of the pandemic on commercial aerospace is worse than expected was confirmed by the major OEM’s in their earnings calls this quarter while defense continues strong at least for now. The aerospace supply chain remains an area of known...

In this time of great uncertainty, there is nothing for aerospace and defense manufacturers to do but deal tactically with the constantly changing environment. Their plates are full just trying to deal with....

737MAX is once again in the news, only this time not for what it isn’t doing.  On December 23 of last year, the same day Dennis Muilenberg resigned, Boeing announced it would shut down production of the 737MAX in January and told suppliers to stop parts shipments for a month.    On January 10 of this year....

Which is more critical to achieving delivery rates – supplier performance or supplier capacity?  In the midst of the concerns about when MAX will return to service a narrative has emerged that the grounding has benefited the supply chain by giving...

Headlines:   Although the lead story in the industry continues to be the 737MAX grounding, Airbus faces challenges of its own. Engine delays are impacting   deliveries of the A320. (Engine issues are also  delaying 777-X’s  entry into service). And Collins Aerospace...

There is a thread emerging from the fallout of the 737 MAX crash investigations that is likely to impact not only Boeing but all of its supply chain.  A Joint...