Who would be the best collaborators for Embraer? Looking at this from a country standpoint, which nations have the means (and the willingness) to invest and/or aerospace manufacturing capability?
- Saudi Arabia – While domestic aerospace manufacturing is less developed than MRO, the Kingdom has resources, willingness to invest, and ambitions to grow in aerospace.
- South Korea – They have invested in aerospace and have elevated their capabilities, perhaps best embodied in the development of a new 4.5 generation fighter.
- Japan – The nation has a considerable aerospace manufacturing experience and while the lessons of the SpaceJet / MRJ were painful, they may also prove instructive. They are also openly debating their industry’s reliance on Boeing widebody aircraft.
- India – They have been building their aerospace design and manufacturing capability, seek to assert their aerospace technical and manufacturing independence in a context of growing regional geopolitical rivalry, and have a large, nascent domestic travel market to boot.
- China – They already have a narrowbody offering (so are likely to benefit from undersupply situation) but a second generation C919 would be much more competitive in the global market.
Boeing and Airbus can’t fill all the orders for narrowbody aircraft right now. Ironically, this was Bombardier’s thesis for launching the CSeries. They developed a state-of-the-art airplane for the same cost as each of Boeing’s and Airbus’s narrowbody re-engining programs but were not able to break into the market. The incumbents were able to defend their positions at that time.
There is no doubt there are significant barriers to entry into the large jet transport space. The time to develop a new airplane and its supporting supply base may prove more effective than money in deterring prospective new entrants from success. Or, the time may be right this time around.
Cliff Collier
May 9, 2024
